The Main Predictors of Divorce (and what to do about it): as researched by John Gottman and R.W. Levenson.

If you have been searching for relationship advice, you may have seen “The Gottman Method” floating around in your newsfeed or searches. That’s because John and Julie Gottman’s contribution to to the field's understanding of what makes a successful couple is foundational to how most newer, expert couple therapists frame their theories. The Gottman’s have completed the most comprehensive studies figuring out what works to help couples thrive… and what doesn’t. 

The Current Landscape

• There is a bit of muddled information when it comes to the divorce rate in the United States. There are a lot of factors that come into play when researching the topic. This Psychology Today article outlines exactly how complicated it can be to decipher the actual percentage, which includes how The Census Bureau’s method comes out to a crude estimate. However, most of the research and data points available suggest that the divorce rate is currently around 40%-50%, which makes one really wonder - why is this happening at such a high rate? 

  
  

• These are the statistics that John Gottman and R.W. Levenson have concluded in the biggest longitudinal study ever conducted on couples. The study included 3,000 participants, some for an observation length of 20 years. In studying same-sex relationships for 12 years, the Gottmans found that the same issues pertain to every couple, whether hetero-normative or not:

  
  

  

  
  

Predictions for Divorce

1. Prediction #1: The 7 year itch is real. Waiting too long for help makes matters worse.

   • Why 7 years? It seems like that might be the average number of years in which couples get over the novelty of each other, and settle into being more themselves - which may be different than what was presented when the two first get together. If you think about it, a lot can change on a personal level in 7 years too -career changes, social group, maturity, having kids- which may tinker with the ingredients of the relationship enough to cause friction if the couple cannot discuss it or come to agreements about how they want their lives to look going forward. 

   • According to the research, most couples wait 6 years before seeking professional help, and about half of all marriages end within the first 7 years. We see that math is math-ing… right? Although it almost never happens, I recommend couples come in before or as soon as they notice something is off in their dynamic so the problems don’t get a chance to fester and grow and make us more entrenched in our negative bias. 

2. Prediction #2: The Four Horsemen (contempt, criticism, defensiveness, stonewalling) are RED FLAGS… do not pass go, address these NOW.

   • These reactions to conflict - contempt, criticism, defensiveness, and stonewalling - are natural ways that humans protect themselves against threat. However, if these feelings live in your body the majority of the time when it comes to interacting with your partner, it is a very good indicator that the relationship will not work out. 

   • Lucky for us, The Gottmans have laid out ‘antidotes’ to these corrosive feelings. This is the work in couples therapy… it’s not exactly easy to totally switch the way we think about a situation. It takes time and yes, it does take effort -but not only have I seen it work as a therapist, I have experienced shifts within myself when I add these antidotes into the mix of my own relationship. We'll go more into these antidotes in a later post.

3. Prediction #3: Emotional withdrawal and the absence of positive affect during conflict are indicators of dysfunction in the relationship.

   • In my experience, if the Four Horsemen are not addressed, it can lead to a sort of apathy about the relationship, a kind of resignation to engage because when you do, it’s the same defeating cycle. So emotional withdrawal seems like an easier way to protect one’s self from the turbulence of conflict. Unfortunately, emotional withdrawal also makes both partners feel lonely in the relationship which often can lead to seeking emotional support outside of the relationship, sometimes leading to full-blown affairs. 

   • It might seem impossible to think that one could have ‘positive affect’ during a conflict, but let me explain. It’s not that we’re putting a mask on and pretending that our anger or hurt is not there when we’re in conflict, it’s more that we are able to share our grievances without swinging totally into the camp of, ‘my partner is a no-good P.O.S’. We can be hurt by our partner, but have an overwhelming understanding that our partner is not actually out to get us. When we don’t fully give in to our negative bias, it makes it easier to have levity and/or be affectionate even in the middle of a fight. Even if we have to tell ourselves in the moment something like, “I really want to leave right now… but I know this will pass” to get through the intensity of fight or flight mode in conflict, it’s a better option than incurring further damage by actually leaving, only to realize later that you didn’t actually want to leave.

   
   

What These Predictions Mean for You:

Are you reading this and thinking, “Oh, shit… that’s us”? Try not to panic. I think all couples experience some level of these predictors, but the ones who last take action and change behaviors. It’s not about the conflict, it’s about how well we can repair.

• If you’re having an “Oh, shit” moment, try and see this as a really great first step in becoming aware of the dynamics that are keeping your relationship from flourishing. This is a great opportunity for change! 

• Take advantage of couples therapy before these problems grow and feel so unmanageable that you feel like giving up. It may take a few visits with different therapists to find the right fit. That’s OK! The most important thing when finding the right therapist is that you feel seen and comfortable enough to share honestly.

• On the flip side, while this post is more geared towards repairing and mending, you may discover by going to therapy that there are deep, unchangeable differences that keep you and your partner at an impasse. There is a chance that discovering this may lead you both to a different outcome than you had hoped for - breaking up. Try not to let this dissuade you too much from trying to make it work. I believe that whenever we choose to be in a partnership, we are also always choosing the risk of losing the relationship too. This vulnerability is what makes relationships so worth it when they work - the choice people are making to fall in love, knowing that it could be gone one day for some reason or another.  

In Summary:

Act now, not later. The science doesn't lie about what works and doesn't work for couples. Being proactive in your relationship is going to be better for everyone’s mental health in the long run. Also, watch this video to get more insights directly from The Gottman’s themselves.

Are you finding yourself getting stuck in the same cycles and patterns with your partner? Contact me today to see if we’d be a good match for therapy. I’m looking forward to hearing from you.